Real Estate Market Predictions for 2020 through 2021

by Williams & Waldoch 11/16/2020

Image by juanngomezz from Pixabay

Economists and housing experts recently surveyed agree that 2020 will be the year that will jumpstart a recession. The panelists involved in the survey feel the reason the upcoming recession takes place will be due to the U.S. trade policy, stock market and political atmosphere. Whether the experts are on target or unforeseen factors play a role remains to be seen. In the interim, the following information provides some insight on what may be coming down the pike for 2020 and 2021.

For 2019, one of the noticeable things to have occurred is the expansion to the economy that set a record as being the longest running. But, the forecast for 2020 has this long-running record coming to a halt sometime in 2020.

Statistics from the panel note half of the 100 experts surveyed are in agreement the recession will begin in 2020. Of those 100 panelists, 19 percent feel the third quarter will be the starting point and 35 percent feel it will end in 2021. A minimal number of panelists expect the end of 2019 to be the starting point for the recession.

As far as how the recession will affect the housing market, the majority of the surveyed experts do not think a slowdown in the housing market will be a significant reason to ignite a recession. Only a handful of experts named the housing market among the top three reasons that would serve as a trigger.

In the past, a slowdown of the housing market has played a direct role in triggering an economic recession, but that isn't the feeling, according to panelists, for the recession they are predicting. The feeling the housing market won't be the cause of the recession but may be affected by it, according to the director of economic research at Zillow, is due to the housing market has been preparing for what is to come far in advance. 

As far as Florida goes, even though the national trend is showing a drop in investment properties, there is still an opportunity for investors. For home buyers, indications are the housing market is healthy and will remain so. 

Factors the experts believe will impact the house buying market, include mortgage rates, affordability, fewer homes on the market and the increase in home prices versus actual wages.

The good news is FHA will increase the loan limit for low-cost areas by an estimated $17,000 making he 2020 loan limit $331,760. For high-cost counties, the loan limit will be $765,000.

In another survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, the panel monitored the chances of a recession beginning with a 7 percent possibility in the latter half of 2019 and an estimated 69 percent probability by the beginning of 2021.